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Association of glycaemic index and glycaemic load with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality: meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

Richard Doll Consortium meta-analysis of large cohorts (≥100,000 participants each; 48 studies): highest vs lowest quantile of glycaemic index associated with higher incidence of type 2 diabetes, total cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related cancers, and all-cause mortality; parallel signals for glycaemic load for diabetes and CVD.

Design

  • Consortium: Richard Doll large prospective cohorts (≥100 000 participants each)
  • 48 studies reporting GI or GL vs T2D, total CVD, diabetes-related cancers, all-cause mortality
  • Pooling: lowest vs highest quantiles; fixed-effects synthesis of most-adjusted RR estimates
  • PROSPERO: CRD42023394689

High vs low glycaemic index (abstract RR [95% CI])

  • Type 2 diabetes: 1.27 (1.21–1.34)
  • Total cardiovascular disease: 1.15 (1.11–1.19)
  • Diabetes-related cancers: 1.05 (1.02–1.08)
  • All-cause mortality: 1.08 (1.05–1.12)

High vs low glycaemic load

  • Type 2 diabetes: 1.15 (1.09–1.21)
  • Total CVD: 1.15 (1.10–1.20)

Evidence hygiene

Dietary pattern confounding (fibre, whole grains) partially overlaps—authors note parallels between low-GI and high-fibre/whole-grain patterns in the same consortium framing.

Publication

Jenkins DJA, et al. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2024 Feb;12(2):110-118. PMID 38272606.

Outcomes

  • All-Cause Mortality Risk
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  • All-Cause Mortality Risk
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  • All-Cause Mortality Risk
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