Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
GBD 2016 modelling across 195 locations: alcohol ranked seventh for age-standardised deaths and DALYs globally; authors estimated the consumption level minimising aggregated health loss was zero (95% UI 0.0–0.8) standard drinks per week.
Methods (high level)
- Integrated 694 consumption sources and 592 risk–outcome studies into comparative risk assessment models for 23 alcohol-linked outcomes
- Standard drink defined as 10 g ethanol
Global burden signals (2016; abstract)
- Alcohol as risk factor ranked 7th for both age-standardised deaths and DALYs
- In 15–49 y, alcohol was the leading risk factor for combined mortality in aggregate global models (3.8% of female deaths, 12.2% of male deaths attributed in the analysis)
Nonlinear risk framing
Authors report rising all-cause mortality and cancer risk with increasing average consumption and estimate the overall loss-minimising drinking level at zero (95% UI 0.0–0.8) drinks/week—read uncertainty intervals and modelling assumptions before translating to individual counselling.
Evidence hygiene
This is population modelling, not an abstinence RCT; pair with ASCEND, SPRINT, and behaviour-change trials when reasoning about individual risk.
Publication
GBD 2016 Alcohol Collaborators. Lancet. 2018 Sep 22;392(10152):1015-1035. PMID 30146330.
Outcomes
- GBD 2016: estimated overall risk-minimising alcohol consumption level 0.0 (95% UI 0.0–0.8) standard drinks per week across modelled health outcomes.
- Among ages 15–49 globally in 2016, alcohol use attributed to 3.8% (95% UI 3.2–4.3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8–13.6) of male deaths in GBD comparative risk models.